Rank and File: Predictions for the 83rd Academy Awards

Today is Oscar day! Or, it is in America. As of right now it's 10:36pm on Sunday evening in Australia. The ceremony is telecast live here from 12:30pm tomorrow (er, Monday - are you following this?), which is really quite nice if you're, like me, just sitting around home and not doing anything anyway. Gone, thankfully, are the days where Australians had to avoid television and online media like the plague for fear of having the delayed telecast spoiled - I will, however, never forget the time when Channel 9, the network that has screened the awards for as long as I remember, spoiled Halle Berry's history making win mere minutes before her category was to be announced! - due to declining ratings and the ever-burgeoning presence of social media all but making the ceremony a mere arbitrary obligation for night own diehards.


Here I thought we'd have a bit of fun with the traditional predictions post. Instead of simply listing who I think will win, I have decided to rank all the contenders in their respective categories (with my predicted winner highlighted in bold). I've done quite well for myself this year, having seen the largest number of nominees pre-ceremony ever. Even in the Best Documentary category, where I rarely seem to get past seeing three of the nominees months(/years!) after the awards, I have been privy to four of the five. I kick myself right now for deciding against seeing Wasteland at last year's Melbourne International Film Festival when I had the chance. In fact, the very final Oscar contender I had to watch was Tim Hetherington and
Sebastian Junger's Restrepo, which received a well-timed direct-to-DVD release just last week (as did Dogtooth, which I aim to revisit, but haven't gotten to just yet).

So, without further ado, let's get to it!

Best Picture
1. Toy Story 3
2. The Social Network
3. Black Swan
4. The Kids are All Right
5. 127 Hours
6. Inception
7. The King's Speech
8. True Grit
9. Winter's Bone
10. The Fighter

Best Director
1. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
2. David Fincher, The Social Network
3. Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, True Grit
4. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
5. David O. Russell, The Fighter

Best Actor
1. James Franco, 127 Hours
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
3. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
4. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
- Javier Bardem, Biutiful

Best Actress
1. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
2. Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right
3. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
4. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Best Supporting actor
1. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids are All Right
2. John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
3. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
4. Christian Bale, The Fighter
5. Jeremy Renner, The Town

Best Supporting Actress
1. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
2. Amy Adams, The Fighter
3. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
4. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
5. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

(I'm better on a lot of last minute screener action for Weaver, as well as every Australian member of the Academy ticking her box, so to speak.)

Best Original Screenplay
1. Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Bloomfeld, The Kids are All Right
2. Mike Leigh, Another Year
3. David Seidler, The King's Speech
4. Christopher Nolan, Inception
5. Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson & Keith Dorrington, The Fighter

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
2. Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton & Lee Unkrich, Toy Story 3
3. Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy, 127 Hours
4. Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, Winter's Bone
5. Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, True Grit

Best Editing
1. The Social Network
2. Black Swan
3. The Fighter
4. 127 Hours
5. The King's Speech

Best Cinematography
1. Black Swan
2. True Grit
3. Inception
4. The Social Network
5. The King's Speech

Best Costume Design
1. I Am Love
2. True Grit
3. The King's Speech
4. Alice in Wonderland
- The Tempest

Best Art Direction
1. Inception
2. The King's Speech
3. True Grit
4. Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince, Part 1
5. Alice in Wonderland

Best Make-Up
1. The Wolfman
- Barney's Version
- The Way Back

Best Original Score
1. How to Train Your Dragon
2. Inception
3. The Social Network
4. The King's Speech
5. 127 Hours

Best Original Song
1. "Coming Home" from Country Strong
2. "A Whole New World 2.0" from Tangled
3. "Randy Newman's Burps Would Get Nominated Here" from Toy Story 3
4. "The Song That Sounds Like Nothing" from 127 Hours

Best Sound Mixing
1. The Social Network
2. Salt
3. True Grit
4. Inception
5. The King's Speech

Best Sound Editing
1. TRON: Legacy
2. Unstoppable
3. Inception
4. True Grit
5. Toy Story 3

Best Visual Effects
1. Inception
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1
3. Hereafter
4. Alice in Wonderland
- Iron Man 2

Best Documentary Feature
1. Inside Job
2. Exit Through the Gift Shop
3. GasLand
- Restrepo
- Wasteland

(The category I've gone back and forth on the most. I have Restrepo here to watch before the ceremony and will update this when I've finished it.)

Best Animated Feature
1. The Illusionist
2. Toy Story 3
3. How to Train Your Dragon

(The one category were I don't care what wins - even if we know what will - and the first time this category that thrown up an entire roster of nominees worthy of the win!)

Best Foreign Language Film
1. In a Better World
2. Dogtooth
- Biutiful
- Incendies
- Outside the Law

Best Documentary, Short Subject
- Killing in the Name
- Poster Girl
- Strangers No More
- Sun Come Up
- The Warriors of Quigang

Best Animated Short
1. Day and Night
- The Gruffalo
- Let's Pollute
- The Lost Thing
- Madagascar, A Journey Diary

Best Live Action Short
- The Confession
- The Crush
- God of Love
- Na Wewe
- Wish 143

Jacki Weaver, Academy Award Nominee.

I think I predicted this back in March.


While I didn't do all that well with my Oscar predictions, I did foresee a couple of the notable things. How about Javier Bardem and I was so happy to see The Illusionist get the leg-up over Tangled and *shudder at the the thought* Despicable Me. Although I wish I'd kept Another Year in my original screenplay predictions instead of swapping it out for Blue Valentine. Meanwhile, in the Best Director category I correctly predicting a big omission, I just went in the wrong direction.

I thought Darren Aronofsky would miss out ala Baz Luhrmann in 2002 when everyone thought there was no way the branch could look at it and not recognise the direction. It was not Aronofsky though, but Christopher Nolan. I must say, I let out a laugh when his name was not read because, as a cinephile I was very distinctly in the minority in thinking that The Reader was the best film nominated in 2009 - give or take a Milk. Hearing all of Nolan's "fanboys" all but shit over that film and it's director Stephen Daldry for "stealing" Nolan's nomination. I am anticipating who these people will claim "stole" Nolan's nomination.

I find it incredibly insulting to throw around this "Inception directed itself?" line because, well, the five nominees all did fine work and earned their nominations. And then there's the issue of the four other directors who didn't get nomination alongside their movies in the Best Picture category. I feel a bit bad for the likes of Debra Granik and Lisa Cholodenko who have to listen to these people yammer on about Nolan being "snubbed" and yet there they are, also having directed Best Picture nominees and... well, I just think it's really poor form. Nevertheless, next year Christopher Nolan has a film in contention will we be seeing 10 nominees for Best Director? Hmmm...

One last word: Burlesque?

Okay, more than one last word. I can live with Burlesque not being nominated, but not nominated against *that* line-up? Or, more specifically, *that* song from 127 Hours? It's fitting that it's played during a shot that just hangs in the sky because it's the musical equivalent of air. It barely exists! I'm not even sure how it qualifies as a song to be perfectly honest with you. Add in the two animated tunes and it's one of the dullest lineups in that category's history. And that's from someone who tends to defend that category more than others. What a load of rubbish!

2011 Oscar Predictions: "Why Not?"

To paraphrase The Cranberries... everybody else is doing it, so can't I? And trust me, there are some people doing it that, quite literally, haven't the foggiest idea what they're doing. It baffles me that even people who run famous Oscar watching websites don't even know eligibility rules for major films, but there you go. Because I don't claim to be an expert I can have a bit of play around with the nominations, which is what I've done. So, let's take a stab at these things, shall we?

Best Picture:
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
alt: 127 Hours



The final spot it definitely a battle, I think, between The Town, Winter's Bone and 127 Hours. I gave the edge to the first two because I imagine they'll benefit from preferential balloting and #1 slots respectively. Personally, I'd prefer 127 Hours over Winter's Bone, but there's a bunch of titles in the entire top ten that I could do without being nominated so it's six of one half a dozen of the other, really.



Best Director:
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O Russell, The Fighter
alt: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Conventional wisdom seems to suggest Aronofsky getting in over the Coen's because his film would've been the likelier top 5 contender in a regular year, but I'm going with the filmmaking brothers in a sort of Woody Allen type nomination (he of the ubiquitous "lone director" nominations) for a directing team that are obvious well respected. I just feel incredibly nervous for Darren Aronofsky in a "Moulin Rouge!-directed-itself" kinda way.

Best Actor:
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
alt: Robert Duvall, Get Low

Firstly, I chose Javier Bardem as a sort of "Tommy Lee Jones from In the Valley of Elah" style it-seems-so-obvious-yet-didn't-quite-see-it-coming nomination. And as much as I'd love to predict Ryan Gosling for his best of the year work in Blue Valentine, with so many young'ns in the field, I imagine many might put down the soft lob of Duvall if they veer away from my predicted five.

Best Actress:
Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
alt: Hilary Swank, Conviction

Oh how I worry for Nicole Kidman. She's been right in there all season, but never winning. That's the sort of position that can lead to complacency from voters. Hailee Steinfeld, however, will wind up here, I suspect, much like Kate Winslet did for The Reader (something I correctly predicted, mind you). She did get the BAFTA nod for lead after all and that is, I think, quite telling.

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
alt: Sam Rockwell, Conviction



I am not at all confident about Garfield or Ruffalo, but have stuck with them anyway. I'd love to see John Hawkes surprise for Winter's Bone, but I'm just not sure how.



Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mia Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
alt: Barbra Hershey, Black Swan

Supporting Actress is always the first category announced on nomination morning so by the time the five nominees have been announced I will be either incredible ecstatic to pay attention to the rest of the nominees or too miserable to pay attention to the rest of the nominees. If I could have any Oscar morning wish it would be for Jacki Weaver to get nominated. We're officially on red alert for her, but I think if Steinfeld gets the bump to the lead race like I expect then we'll be seeing Weaver's face pop up on the monitor.

Best Original Screenplay:
Blue Valentine
The Fighter
Inception
The Kid's are All Right
The King's Speech
alt: Another Year

Kinda going off on a tangent with these nominations, but the writing categories have been surprisingly keen lately to honour the films that aren't getting noticed elsewhere and I suspect Blue Valentine will rank highly enough on enough ballots to get nominated.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Ghost Writer
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
alt: 127 Hours

Yeah, by this stage we're all just theorising on one spot since four of these are locked up. It won't make much of a difference either way, right? I'm figuring the writer's branch will find more to like in The Ghost Writer's adaptation (plus novelty factor of high profile writer) than 127 Hours which, at least for me, finds its strengths elsewhere than the screenplay.

Best Cinematography:
127 Hours
Black Swan
I Am Love
Inception
True Grit
alt: The Social Network

Okay, I Am Love is obviously wishful thinking, but I'm holding out hope for a Malèna style nomination, okay? I can dream, can't it? Either way, I'll just be thankful for any lineup that doesn't include The King's Speech's gaudy lenses. Please!


Best Art Direction:
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
The King's Speech
Shutter Island
True Grit
alt: Black Swan

I don't really have anything to say about this category. Sometimes they nominate certain things and sometimes they don't. Who can tell, really?


Best Costume Design:
Black Swan
Burlesque
The King's Speech
Robin Hood
True Grit
alt: Alice in Wonderland

Just a completely random idea to throw out Alice in Wonderland. I'm absolutely positive it will indeed get a nomination for Colleen Atwood, but... I just want to throw it out on the off chance they do indeed snub her and I can be all "see, I knew they wouldn't nominate that trash." Of course, I'm then predicting Robin Hood, so... er... ummm...

Best Film Editing:
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
alt: The Fighter

I dunno. All six of these films have aspects that I can see the Academy responding too. I'm just banking on some sort of boxing movie fatigue with The Fighter (although the editors branch could just as easily be turned on by the inserting of documentary footage as they are turned off by the routine boxing sequences.) To quote Lisa Simpson: Like, ya know... whatever!

Best Make-Up:
Alice in Wonderland
True Grit
The Wolfman
alt: The Way Back

I typed "The W---" and left it blank for several minutes as I tried to decide which movie to predict. I went with The Wolfman, but I can easily see it being left off in favour of, well, anything, really? Same goes for True Grit, but I feel confident that that's film's prestige will get it across the line.

Best Visual Effects:
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
Iron Man 2
Scott Pilgrim vs The World
TRON: Legacy
alt: Harry Potter and the I've Forgotten It's Name For Real, Part 1

Yeah? I dunno. Why is this category five wide again?

Best Music - Original Score:
Alice in Wonderland
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
alt: The Illusionist

Alexandre Desplat, almost always getting nominated for the wrong score entirely. This year it's The King's Speech over (apparently) The Ghost Writer. Hmmm. So disappointing since I thought this year had so many great scores. They really do need to reinstate that adapted/song score category though, don't they?


Best Music - Original Song:
"Welcome to Burlesque" from Burlesque
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" from Burlesque
"Coming Home" from Country Strong
"I See the Light" from Tangled
"We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3
alt: "Shine" from Waiting for Superman

I will be happy as long as something from Burlesque is nominated!

Best Sound Editing:
Black Swan
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
alt: True Grit

I went back and forth. Settled on this combination. looks decent enough, right? (rhetorical question, don't answer that!)

Best Sound Mixing:
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
True Grit
Unstoppable
alt: Salt

Again, who really knows? These categories occasionally throw up really weird stuff.


Best Animated Feature:
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
alt: Tangled

I haven't seen Tangled yet, but gosh I really hope The Illusionist really snags that final contested slot. Or, if not that, then something like My Dog Tulip or Idiots and Angels that will throw people for a loop like they did last year with The Secret of Kells. Do we really need Despicable Me nominated? Why not just nominate Kim Possible: The Movie while you're at it?

Best Documentary Feature:
Inside Job
Restrepo
The Tillman
Waiting for Superman
WasteLand
alt: William Kunstler: Disturbing the Universe

I can see all the contenders being nominated, to tell you the truth. And, for what it's worth, that includes Exit Through the Gift Shop. If it got this far...

Best Foreign Language Film:
Incendies from Canada
In a Better World from Denmark
Biutiful from Mexico
Life Above All from South Africa
Even the Rain from Spain
alt: Dogtooth from Greece (for laughs)

Again, it's a total throw-the-darts idea for the final spot and I went with Spain since it sounds like the where-did-that-come-from surprise that is always there due to the tiny nature of the branch.

I'm not going to predict the short categories since I can't even fake having any true knowledge about them at all. We'll see how we go when the nominations are announced Tuesday American time, which I believe is usually about Midnight on Wednesday here. What fun.

You've done a good thing, AFI and LAFCA

To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Jacki Weaver took out Best Lead Actress at this passed weekend's 2010 AFI Awards for her role in Animal Kingdom. Perhaps not as predictable, but certainly right up there amongst a list of very plausible outcomes, Weaver also won the Best Supporting Actress prize from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. I've mentioned before how much the LAFCA are my favourite of the pre-Oscar critics organisations and this year they continued to prove me right. Weaver's win was just one of several great choices. How about Kim Hya-ja for Best Actress in Mother? That's very awesome.

Still, the really important one is the Australian Film Institute for no other real reason than we get an acceptance speech. Weaver wasn't there on the night - she was performing Uncle Vanya in Sydney with Cate Blanchett and Richard Roxburgh, who also won an AFI Saturday night for his performance in Hawke - but, as I wrote in my article for Encore Magazine, Weaver "easily won best speech of the night to go along with her Best Lead Actress statue."

Let's take a look at it, shall we?

Thank you so much, I'm so excited about this that there will be tears before bed time, most likely. I wish I could be there. I love doing Uncle Vanya, but there are so many people in that room tonight that I love and I've known for years and I just wish we could all be together tonight.

When I was young and green I used to think awards didn't mean that much, but now that I'm not young and green, but quite ripe, I love getting prizes. It's wonderful to be reassured that you haven't been barking up the wrong tree for 48 years in your choice of career, and it's nice to have it affirmed that you're still relevant. I've won two AFI Awards before, the last one was in 1976 when David Michôd was four years old. David Michôd, of course, being the writer and director of Animal Kingdom and I just feel very fortunate that he wanted me.

An exceptional cast, every one of you perfect. I will single out Ben Mendelsohn; Ben, you are a consummate actor. Playing with you, interacting with you, watching you and listening to you and just spouting dialogue in your general direction is a joy and an honour and a privilege. And I just briefly want to mention my family ... my husband, Sean Taylor, who is the actor in the family. In fact, I'd like to thank everyone I ever married. I still love all of you and I won't name you all 'cause we haven't got enough time. I'm sorry this speech is so long, but it might be another 35 years before I get another chance. Good night and good luck, thank you so much. I love it.

Isn't that a great speech? Everybody was laughing along with it and I reckon if that video goes viral then Jacki Weaver would be an even better bet for an Oscar nomination. Who can't fall in love with her after watching that! Come on folks, make it happen! You know Cate Blanchett is putting her at the top of her Oscar ballot!

You've done a good thing, National Board of Review

Jacki Weaver done gone and won some fancy award or somethin'! Who'da thunk it?

Hey Randall, before you go on, this boy who's currently being looked after, tell me if you agree with this, this boy who's being looked after... he knows who you are and you know how these things go. They're gonna ask him all sorts of questions about everythin' he's ever seen or done. Everyone he's ever met, the whole shamozzle. And you've done some bad things, Sweetie. Haven't ya?

I want this part to be clear, this is not about you doing me a favour or me blackmailing you or anything like that, it's just a bad situation for everyone. Esra's got the address, it shouldn't be too hard to set up a raid on the house. It'd be reasonable grounds what with all the strange activity, the comings and goings, day and night. One of the neighbours might have seen a gun or something. This is your area of expertise, I'm not trying to tell you how to suck eggs. What do you think?

...

Randall, I feel sick about this. I'm not happy at all, not one little bit. But we do what we have to do, we do what we must. Just because we don't wanna do something doesn't mean it can't be done.

18 Thoughts About the AFI Nominations

In honour of the record breaking nomination haul by David Michôd's Animal Kingdom at today's Australian Film Institute Award nominations, here are 18 thoughts/musings/reflections/etc. The entire list of contenders can be found at the AFI website, so please head over there and save me the effort of copying and pasting like a lazy git typing them all out.

1. 18 Nominations for Animal Kingdom?
As if its status as one of the most acclaimed and important films in Australian history, today it had to go out of its way and nab itself 18 nominations! That's a record as far as I can tell (nobody seems to have corrected me yet). Of course, it helps to get three out of four Best Supporting Actor nominations (Guy Pearce, Joel Edgerton and Sullivan Stapleton) and two Best Lead Actor nominations (Ben Mendelsohn and James Frencheville). Throw in some (shall we say) curious technical nominations like Cappi Ireland's for Best Costume Design and Best Production Design for Jo Ford and that means Animal Kingdom received a nomination in every single category that it was eligible for!

2. The Waiting City is this year's Disgrace
Eyebrows were certainly raised last year when Steve Jacobs' critically acclaimed Disgrace, starring a career best John Malkovich, failed to receive a single nomination and it looks like that honour has been bestowed upon Claire McCarthy's The Waiting City in 2010. Oh sure, Denson Baker received a well-deserved Best Cinematography nomination, but that's it. I didn't expect it to get nominations across the board, but the exemplary work by Joel Edgerton and Radha Mitchell (giving perhaps their best ever performances in my eyes) seems like good solid Best Lead Actor and Actress nominees. Not the case. I wasn't as anti-James Frencheville as some, but his nomination over Edgerton (or Peter Marshall in The Horseman for that matter) is baffling.

3. Bright Star was remembered.
I am so happy that not only was Bright Star remembered in the Best Film category, but Jane Campion and Abbie Cornish, too, in their respective fields. Campion's stunning film about poet John Keats was released late last year (along with The Boys are Back, which also had a solid nomination tally) and could have easily been passed over for more recent fare. Note, Campion is nominated for Best Original Screenplay, not Adapted like the Academy tried to make out that Bright Star was (pish posh, obviously!)

4. Women make up half the Best Direction category
It's true. And it's interesting that they went with Julie Bertuccelli, a foreigner.

5. Don't feel sorry for Kodi Smit-McPhee
Sure, he's the lone representative for any movie that is not Animal Kingdom in the Best Supporting Actor category, but since he is nominated for a film that was a flop and an awards day dud (that'd be Matching Jack), not to mention his second nomination for The Road in the International category, let's not get too sad for the kid. He's already won an AFI and another nomination in his brief time plus he's making critically acclaimed films overseas, so he's going all right!


6. Speaking of those International Awards...
You have to just accept Sam Worthington being nominated for Avatar, but Mia Wasikowska for Alice in Wonderland? When she gave a great performance in The Kids are All Right? That's crazy talk! Meanwhile, Naomi Watts received what will probably be her only nomination for Mother & Child and she should probably win the category, unless voters are feeling partial to Toni Collette in The United States of Tara for a second year in a row.

7. Favouritism
Yeah, Jacki Weaver was great and all and seeing her nominated (and surely win) was great (although I'm more excited about her Oscar prospects right now), the top nomination of the day for me was that left field, but oh so rockin' nomination for Daybreakers in Best Original Screenplay. You can't say that isn't an interesting citation. I'd say a deserved one, too.

8. Tomorrow when Ashleigh Cummings is a star
I was happy to see Ashleigh Cummings got a nomination in the Best Young Actor category for her work as "Robyn" in Tomorrow When the War Began. As I get further away from seeing that film, a good one and one that got several major nominations including Best Film, it is without a doubt she and Deniz Akdeniz that linger as the standouts. That shot of Cummings walking towards the camera as she fires her rifle is one of the finest individual moments from any of the AFI contenders.

9. No The Horseman
I know it was a very longshot, but it would have been great to see Steven Kastrissios' intense revenge horror film The Horseman get something. Peter Marshall's performance is the best male performance of the year, too.


10. Ben Mendelsohn will finally win a Lead statue
He's like Meryl Streep. He won way back 1987 for Best Supporting Actor in The Year My Voice Broke, but despite six nominations in the Lead categories (one was for Lead Actor in a TV Drama for Love My Way) it appears he will finally get that Lead Actor AFI award. I thought he deserved it last year for Beautiful Kate over the eventual winner, Anthony LaPaglia for Balibo, but who can deny him this year? James Frencheville is the Queen Latifah to Mendelsohn's Catherine Zeta-Jones, if you know what I mean.

11. Doubling up
This doesn't happen to often. Not only are two actors from the same film represented together in Best Lead Actor (the aforementioned Mendelsohn and Frencheville from Animal Kingdom), but the Best Lead Actress category, too, as French actor Charlotte Gainsbourg joins her young The Tree co-star Morgana Davis. I was hoping for one, but didn't expect both!

I keep a running "ballot" document for each year as it goes by and I have Davies and Gainsbourg listed together under Best Actress purely because they feel so intertwined in that film that it feels impossible to separate them. No one is going to deny Jacki Weaver in that category at the AFIs, but I reckon Morgana Davies would've won this in a walk if Weaver had have been submitted in the Best Supporting Actress category, but that's not how the AFI Awards work.

12. International names on the list
We've already mentioned Julie Bertuccelli (Best Direction) and Charlotte Gainsbourg (Best Lead Actress), but Clive Owen too snuck in on goodwill for The Boys are Back, a likable if unremarkable film that still wormed its way to nominations.

13. Ernie Dingo?
Did this well known actor's recent string of bad publicity and alleged criminal activity cause him to be snubbed for Bran Nue Dae. I don't know anyone who doesn't say he gives the best performance of that indigenous road trip musical, a Best Film contender, and yet he was absent from the ballot. Was surprised to see Geoffrey Rush not nominated, either, in the Supporting Actor category since he is so revered.

14. John Edwards, but not the psychic one
Is John Edwards the most respected man in Aussie television right now? The AFI TV categories are filled with projects he is involved with. In fact, of the four Best Television Drama series nominees, only one (ONE!) does not list John Edwards as one of the producer nominees. Rush (Network Ten), Spirited (W) and Tangled (Showcase) have all been shepherded by the man, which is a remarkable achievement. That his three shows are all quite good is another matter entirely. How about Claudia Karvan and Jacquelin Perske, too? They have a new show? Nominate it!


15. Network Ten, for better or worse
Whether you like Network Ten's programming - and I wholeheartedly agree with piece by Clem Bastow at The Vine re James Packer's recent purchase of the channel - it's hard to deny, as I look over the TV nominations that without them the list would be... barren, for lack of a better word. Hell, the Best Telefeature/Mini-Series category wouldn't even exist! And I think we can all be thankful that Rush is there to save us from an embarrassing Packed to the Rafters/Rescue Special Ops situation.

16. Five outta six ain't bad!
Back to the films, I wasn't a fan of Beneath Hill 60, but the nominations are all pretty impressive. Sure, the Animal Kingdom love went a little bit overboard like Goldie Hawn, and The Waiting City's egregious snubbing is more than a little sad, but one bad movie out of a bunch (and, yes, I am admittedly in the minority in regards to my feelings about Jeremy Sims' WWI movie) is a good stat.

17. Struck out
Films to receive no nominations at all are Accidents Happen, The Horseman, I Love You Too, Lou, Mother Fish and Subdivision. Nothing too upsetting about those apart from The Horseman, which I've already spoken about.

18. Next year?
We've already seen several contenders in the form of The Loved Ones, which should be nominations across the board, but I'll be specifically cheering on nominations for Best Production Design, Best Costume Design and Robin McLeavy for Best Lead Actress, giving a performance that can instantly be regarded as one of the greatest horror performances of all time. Yes, I am being serious. We've also got Red Hill, which should do well in the technical categories, and - depending on eligibility issues - The King's Speech. That Oscar contender is an official UK/Australia co-production, but is it enough of one to qualify? Well, that's too far away to think about, so let's just stay with 2010, okay?

The Unknown Veteran

I don't do much awards chatter these days here at the blog. There are so many other places that do it and do it far better than I so I stopped for the most part. Every now and then, however, I really get the itch to do my Oscar watching right here instead of in the comment sections of other, better blogs and I've decided to go out on a limb and predict that "Australia's own" (hello Herald Sun "entertainment" pages favourite saying) Jacki Weaver will be nominated for an Academy Award come early next year.

Weaver, as anybody who reads Stale Popcorn knows, is the eye of the cyclone that is David David Michôd's Animal Kingdom. She's the calm centre of the raging storm around her, but her placidness belies the true destructive force that's at work; she's a monster through and through. Normally a performance by a 63-year-old unknown in a foreign film (especially one that has only grossed $900,000) wouldn't cause much of a ripple on the other side of the Pacific, but she's the only contender in the Best Supporting Actress field, thin as it may be, to already have herself a genuine, bona fide fanbase. She has a catchphrase, for cryin' out loud! Still, that won't be enough to get the nomination.

My belief in Weaver's nomination comes from what I hope will be the influence of the critics. Looking at the list of known contenders in the category - ignore the fact that she will be nominated for, and win, the Best Actress category at the AFI Awards come November, the AFIs generally always bump up the most prominent of each gender to the lead categories whether it is justified or not - and it's hard to see a name that sticks out as the sort that critics associations throughout the United States would rally behind.

Most of the other names that people think will be in the Oscar race don't instantly strike me as the type of roles that critics reward. As much of a breeze as Helena Bonham Carter may find it to get an Oscar nomination for The King's Speech does this really strike you as a big enough, note-worthy enough, for the critcs? Will they go for the supportive "mom" or the supporting girlfriend, played by Melissa Leo and Amy Adams respectively, from The Fighter? That movie hardly looks like the sort of project that will endear itself to the critics with its apparent old-fashioned nature. I could see Barbara Hershey getting some success from Darren Aronofsky's Black Swan, but does her domineering mother character rank alongside Weaver's? And if they really want to help that movie they'll award Aronofsky or Natalie Portman, surely.


More likely contenders would be Dianne Wiest for Rabbit Hole and Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit. One is a bona fide legend and the other could prove to be a breakout youngster, but unless Weist steamrolls through the season I can't see critics giving her their prize for a role that's (at least from the outset) looks so unflashy. Maybe that's just me. Steinfeld? Well, it could be a way for the critics to reward True Grit if they decide to really get on the bandwagon of The Social Network in the big categories.

Other than those, who is there? I'd love to see Dale Dickey show up there for Winter's Bone, but her brand of character actress so rarely get noticed and, no offence intended, Dickey is not a "natural beauty" so she can't hang her hat on the "i-went-ugly-but-look-how-sexy-i-really-am" rack. I doubt the critics will go for Tyler Perry's For Colored Girls (as an aside, the number of times I have to correct myself on the spelling of that title is getting ridiculous!) or the women of Nowhere Boy. Miranda Richardson for Made in Dagenham? Maybe if they realise they've really missed her, but the film strikes me as a little bit lightweight for the critics, doesn't it?

We've seen the monster mother routine rewarded plenty of times rewards. Recent examples of this include Amy Ryan for Gone Baby Gone and Mo'Nique for Precious. Will they go to that particular well again? I hope so, especially when someone such as Weaver is so deserving. If you follow the reviews then it's hard to argue that Weaver's is the most critically acclaimed performance of the year so far give or take a Lesley Manville. If nobody gives her an award this season then they will be doing themselves a great disservice.

The only way Weaver will be able to really make a legitimate claim to a Best Supporting Actress nomination will be with the support of critics, but the critics might not reward her because they don't feel she has a legitimate shot of a Best Supporting Actress nomination, and these days these associations are all about being "relevant". Still, nobody was predicting Amy Ryan or Amy Adams (for Junebug) for an Oscar nomination and the support they were shown shoehorned her into the race. I'm hoping - I'm predicting - they will do the same for Jacki Weaver. She deserves it.

And if anybody wants to send me their Jacki Weaver catchphrase t-shirt I'd be more than willing to accept it!

Mother Knows Best

I trust Sony Pictures Classics know how to position Aussie crime film Animal Kingdom in the American cinemagoing landscape better than I. We all know that foreign films are finding it harder and harder to find an audience in the United States and must do their hardest to get bums in seats. SPC's answer? Well, according to this trailer - thanks to the gorgeous Alice Tynan at The Plot Thickens for alerting me to it - their answer is to sell Jacki Weaver as Evil Mother de jour of 2010.

I was initially surprised that Weaver - she of what is sure to be the year's best supporting performance, male or female - was quoted about on the film's US movie poster, but now it all makes sense as part of a bigger plan to sell her as the film's centrepiece, which - for me - it is.


Those are big words and apt ones, too, and here comes the new US trailer. Suddenly the entire movie revolves around Weaver's creepy, despicable mother character. The trailer gives way too much away in regards to the dastardly deeds that she performs - I and others have been careful to let her wicked arsenal of party tricks remain a surprise despite yammering on and on about how fantastic she is at dishing them out - but it certainly gives me faith that SPC have found an angle and are running with it. Anything that gets American audiences to actually see the movie and maybe even propel Jacki Weaver into Oscar contention is good by me.

In fact, this trailer is so enamoured with Weaver that her line "You've done some bad things, Sweetie" gets uttered not once, but TWICE! It's as if they're giving the movie a catchphrase (hey, it is a great line and Weaver's delivery is creepy beyond words). Is Weaver this year's Mo'Nique? I'd like to think so, but I doubt it. She's sure to win every award under the sun in her home country, but it will always be hard for an older, unknown actress to get noticed in the circus that is the American awards season. Anyone who enjoys an Evil Mother in their films must see Animal Kingdom. Anyone who prides themselves on seeing the best that world cinema has to offer must see Animal Kingdom, too.

Animal Kingdom is out in the USA on August 13 and is currently screening in Australia (to box office of over $3mil and counting, which is great news). Check out the trailer at Apple or below.

American Kingdom

It has been so great to see the emphatic reacting that Australian audiences have had to Melbourne-set crime thriller Animal Kingdom. It currently sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and in it's second week at the box office it actually increased 11%. I'm fascinated to see how it continues as the word continues to spread that this is - whether one agrees or not - the newest Aussie classic. I may have preferred that label to be attached to something like Three Blind Mice, but if Animal Kingdom has to be the one to get the critical and commercial respect then I'm only too happy to watch them get it.

The film, directed by first time director David Michôd is receiving an American release in August and Quickflix Blog got a hold of the American poster. Let's check it out.


It's obviously a big change from the two previous designs that we've seen (the Australian theatrical poster and the Sundance festival poster, both below). They've gone with a cool (as in cold) blue look as opposed to the Gothic family portrait look of the local design. I find it interesting and, quite frankly, stupid that they haven't put Guy Pearce on there since he is the only recognisable face (for Americans) amongst the cast. Unless I'm somehow underestimating the reach of Joel Edgerton's Star Wars cameo and he is somehow known over there in the States.

I do love that they included a quote about how deliciously evil Jacki Weaver is since, as you should very well already know, I agree wholeheartedly that she gives one of the greatest performances you'll see this decade (and, yes, I am aware this decade isn't even 6 months old, but it is that impressive). I would be intrigued to hear from any American readers as to whether this design appeals to you. Speak up in the comments if you'd like. Personally, I'm not keen on this new look and I prefer the Aussie design, but what say you?


See?