To paraphrase The Cranberries... everybody else is doing it, so can't I? And trust me, there are some people doing it that, quite literally, haven't the foggiest idea what they're doing. It baffles me that even people who run famous Oscar watching websites don't even know eligibility rules for major films, but there you go. Because I don't claim to be an expert I can have a bit of play around with the nominations, which is what I've done. So, let's take a stab at these things, shall we?
Best Picture:Black SwanThe FighterInceptionThe Kids are All RightThe King's SpeechThe Social NetworkThe TownToy Story 3True GritWinter's Bonealt: 127 Hours
The final spot it definitely a battle, I think, between
The Town,
Winter's Bone and
127 Hours. I gave the edge to the first two because I imagine they'll benefit from preferential balloting and #1 slots respectively. Personally, I'd prefer
127 Hours over
Winter's Bone, but there's a bunch of titles in the entire top ten that I could do without being nominated so it's six of one half a dozen of the other, really.
Best Director:Joel Coen & Ethan Coen,
True GritDavid Fincher,
The Social NetworkTom Hooper,
The King's SpeechChristopher Nolan,
InceptionDavid O Russell,
The Fighteralt: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Conventional wisdom seems to suggest Aronofsky getting in over the Coen's because his film would've been the likelier top 5 contender in a regular year, but I'm going with the filmmaking brothers in a sort of Woody Allen type nomination (he of the ubiquitous "lone director" nominations) for a directing team that are obvious well respected. I just feel incredibly nervous for Darren Aronofsky in a "
Moulin Rouge!-directed-itself" kinda way.
Best Actor:Javier Bardem,
BiutifulJeff Bridges,
True GritJesse Eisenberg,
The Social NetworkColin Firth,
The King’s SpeechJames Franco,
127 Hoursalt: Robert Duvall, Get Low
Firstly, I chose Javier Bardem as a sort of "Tommy Lee Jones from
In the Valley of Elah" style it-seems-so-obvious-yet-didn't-quite-see-it-coming nomination. And as much as I'd love to predict Ryan Gosling for his best of the year work in
Blue Valentine, with so many young'ns in the field, I imagine many might put down the soft lob of Duvall if they veer away from my predicted five.
Best Actress:Annette Bening,
The Kids are All RightNicole Kidman,
Rabbit HoleJennifer Lawrence,
Winter's BoneNatalie Portman,
Black SwanHailee Steinfeld,
True Gritalt: Hilary Swank, Conviction
Oh how I worry for Nicole Kidman. She's been right in there all season, but never winning. That's the sort of position that can lead to complacency from voters. Hailee Steinfeld, however, will wind up here, I suspect, much like Kate Winslet did for
The Reader (something I correctly predicted, mind you). She did get the BAFTA nod for lead after all and that is, I think, quite telling.
Best Supporting Actor:Christian Bale,
The FighterAndrew Garfield,
The Social NetworkJeremy Renner,
The TownMark Ruffalo,
The Kids are All RightGeoffrey Rush,
The King's Speechalt: Sam Rockwell, Conviction
I am not at all confident about Garfield or Ruffalo, but have stuck with them anyway. I'd love to see John Hawkes surprise for
Winter's Bone, but I'm just not sure how.
Best Supporting Actress:Amy Adams,
The FighterHelena Bonham Carter,
The King's SpeechMia Kunis,
Black SwanMelissa Leo,
The FighterJacki Weaver,
Animal Kingdomalt: Barbra Hershey, Black Swan
Supporting Actress is always the first category announced on nomination morning so by the time the five nominees have been announced I will be either incredible ecstatic to pay attention to the rest of the nominees or too miserable to pay attention to the rest of the nominees. If I could have any Oscar morning wish it would be for Jacki Weaver to get nominated. We're officially on red alert for her, but I think if Steinfeld gets the bump to the lead race like I expect then we'll be seeing Weaver's face pop up on the monitor.
Best Original Screenplay:Blue ValentineThe FighterInceptionThe Kid's are All RightThe King's Speechalt: Another YearKinda going off on a tangent with these nominations, but the writing categories have been surprisingly keen lately to honour the films that aren't getting noticed elsewhere and I suspect
Blue Valentine will rank highly enough on enough ballots to get nominated.
Best Adapted Screenplay:The Ghost WriterThe Social NetworkToy Story 3True GritWinter's Bonealt: 127 HoursYeah, by this stage we're all just theorising on one spot since four of these are locked up. It won't make much of a difference either way, right? I'm figuring the writer's branch will find more to like in
The Ghost Writer's adaptation (plus novelty factor of high profile writer) than
127 Hours which, at least for me, finds its strengths elsewhere than the screenplay.
Best Cinematography:127 HoursBlack SwanI Am LoveInceptionTrue Gritalt: The Social NetworkOkay,
I Am Love is obviously wishful thinking, but I'm holding out hope for a
Malèna style nomination, okay? I can dream, can't it? Either way, I'll just be thankful for any lineup that doesn't include
The King's Speech's gaudy lenses. Please!
Best Art Direction:Alice in WonderlandInceptionThe King's SpeechShutter IslandTrue Gritalt: Black SwanI don't really have anything to say about this category. Sometimes they nominate certain things and sometimes they don't. Who can tell, really?
Best Costume Design:Black SwanBurlesqueThe King's SpeechRobin HoodTrue Gritalt: Alice in WonderlandJust a completely random idea to throw out
Alice in Wonderland. I'm absolutely positive it will indeed get a nomination for Colleen Atwood, but... I just want to throw it out on the off chance they do indeed snub her and I can be all "see, I knew they wouldn't nominate that trash." Of course, I'm then predicting
Robin Hood, so... er... ummm...
Best Film Editing:Black SwanInceptionThe King's Speech127 HoursThe Social Networkalt: The FighterI dunno. All six of these films have aspects that I can see the Academy responding too. I'm just banking on some sort of boxing movie fatigue with
The Fighter (although the editors branch could just as easily be turned on by the inserting of documentary footage as they are turned off by the routine boxing sequences.) To quote Lisa Simpson: Like, ya know... whatever!
Best Make-Up:Alice in WonderlandTrue GritThe Wolfmanalt: The Way BackI typed "The W---" and left it blank for several minutes as I tried to decide which movie to predict. I went with
The Wolfman, but I can easily see it being left off in favour of, well, anything, really? Same goes for
True Grit, but I feel confident that that's film's prestige will get it across the line.
Best Visual Effects:Alice in WonderlandInceptionIron Man 2Scott Pilgrim vs The WorldTRON: Legacyalt: Harry Potter and the I've Forgotten It's Name For Real, Part 1Yeah? I dunno. Why is this category five wide again?
Best Music - Original Score:Alice in WonderlandHow to Train Your DragonInceptionThe King's SpeechThe Social Networkalt: The Illusionist
Alexandre Desplat, almost always getting nominated for the wrong score entirely. This year it's
The King's Speech over (apparently)
The Ghost Writer. Hmmm. So disappointing since I thought this year had
so many great scores. They really do need to reinstate that adapted/song score category though, don't they?
Best Music - Original Song:"Welcome to Burlesque" from
Burlesque"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" from
Burlesque"Coming Home" from
Country Strong"I See the Light" from
Tangled"We Belong Together" from
Toy Story 3alt: "Shine" from Waiting for SupermanI will be happy as long as something from
Burlesque is nominated!
Best Sound Editing:Black SwanHow to Train Your DragonInception127 HoursToy Story 3alt: True GritI went back and forth. Settled on this combination. looks decent enough, right? (rhetorical question, don't answer that!)
Best Sound Mixing:Black SwanInceptionThe Social NetworkTrue GritUnstoppablealt: SaltAgain, who really knows? These categories occasionally throw up really weird stuff.
Best Animated Feature:How to Train Your DragonThe IllusionistToy Story 3alt: TangledI haven't seen
Tangled yet, but gosh I really hope
The Illusionist really snags that final contested slot. Or, if not that, then something like
My Dog Tulip or
Idiots and Angels that will throw people for a loop like they did last year with
The Secret of Kells. Do we really need
Despicable Me nominated? Why not just nominate
Kim Possible: The Movie while you're at it?
Best Documentary Feature:Inside JobRestrepoThe TillmanWaiting for SupermanWasteLandalt: William Kunstler: Disturbing the UniverseI can see all the contenders being nominated, to tell you the truth. And, for what it's worth, that includes
Exit Through the Gift Shop. If it got this far...
Best Foreign Language Film:Incendies from Canada
In a Better World from Denmark
Biutiful from Mexico
Life Above All from South Africa
Even the Rain from Spain
alt: Dogtooth from Greece (for laughs)Again, it's a total throw-the-darts idea for the final spot and I went with
Spain since it sounds like the where-did-that-come-from surprise that is always there due to the tiny nature of the branch.
I'm not going to predict the short categories since I can't even fake having any true knowledge about them at all. We'll see how we go when the nominations are announced Tuesday American time, which I believe is usually about Midnight on Wednesday here. What fun.