2011 Oscar Predictions: "Why Not?"

To paraphrase The Cranberries... everybody else is doing it, so can't I? And trust me, there are some people doing it that, quite literally, haven't the foggiest idea what they're doing. It baffles me that even people who run famous Oscar watching websites don't even know eligibility rules for major films, but there you go. Because I don't claim to be an expert I can have a bit of play around with the nominations, which is what I've done. So, let's take a stab at these things, shall we?

Best Picture:
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
alt: 127 Hours



The final spot it definitely a battle, I think, between The Town, Winter's Bone and 127 Hours. I gave the edge to the first two because I imagine they'll benefit from preferential balloting and #1 slots respectively. Personally, I'd prefer 127 Hours over Winter's Bone, but there's a bunch of titles in the entire top ten that I could do without being nominated so it's six of one half a dozen of the other, really.



Best Director:
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O Russell, The Fighter
alt: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Conventional wisdom seems to suggest Aronofsky getting in over the Coen's because his film would've been the likelier top 5 contender in a regular year, but I'm going with the filmmaking brothers in a sort of Woody Allen type nomination (he of the ubiquitous "lone director" nominations) for a directing team that are obvious well respected. I just feel incredibly nervous for Darren Aronofsky in a "Moulin Rouge!-directed-itself" kinda way.

Best Actor:
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
alt: Robert Duvall, Get Low

Firstly, I chose Javier Bardem as a sort of "Tommy Lee Jones from In the Valley of Elah" style it-seems-so-obvious-yet-didn't-quite-see-it-coming nomination. And as much as I'd love to predict Ryan Gosling for his best of the year work in Blue Valentine, with so many young'ns in the field, I imagine many might put down the soft lob of Duvall if they veer away from my predicted five.

Best Actress:
Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
alt: Hilary Swank, Conviction

Oh how I worry for Nicole Kidman. She's been right in there all season, but never winning. That's the sort of position that can lead to complacency from voters. Hailee Steinfeld, however, will wind up here, I suspect, much like Kate Winslet did for The Reader (something I correctly predicted, mind you). She did get the BAFTA nod for lead after all and that is, I think, quite telling.

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
alt: Sam Rockwell, Conviction



I am not at all confident about Garfield or Ruffalo, but have stuck with them anyway. I'd love to see John Hawkes surprise for Winter's Bone, but I'm just not sure how.



Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mia Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
alt: Barbra Hershey, Black Swan

Supporting Actress is always the first category announced on nomination morning so by the time the five nominees have been announced I will be either incredible ecstatic to pay attention to the rest of the nominees or too miserable to pay attention to the rest of the nominees. If I could have any Oscar morning wish it would be for Jacki Weaver to get nominated. We're officially on red alert for her, but I think if Steinfeld gets the bump to the lead race like I expect then we'll be seeing Weaver's face pop up on the monitor.

Best Original Screenplay:
Blue Valentine
The Fighter
Inception
The Kid's are All Right
The King's Speech
alt: Another Year

Kinda going off on a tangent with these nominations, but the writing categories have been surprisingly keen lately to honour the films that aren't getting noticed elsewhere and I suspect Blue Valentine will rank highly enough on enough ballots to get nominated.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Ghost Writer
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
alt: 127 Hours

Yeah, by this stage we're all just theorising on one spot since four of these are locked up. It won't make much of a difference either way, right? I'm figuring the writer's branch will find more to like in The Ghost Writer's adaptation (plus novelty factor of high profile writer) than 127 Hours which, at least for me, finds its strengths elsewhere than the screenplay.

Best Cinematography:
127 Hours
Black Swan
I Am Love
Inception
True Grit
alt: The Social Network

Okay, I Am Love is obviously wishful thinking, but I'm holding out hope for a Malèna style nomination, okay? I can dream, can't it? Either way, I'll just be thankful for any lineup that doesn't include The King's Speech's gaudy lenses. Please!


Best Art Direction:
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
The King's Speech
Shutter Island
True Grit
alt: Black Swan

I don't really have anything to say about this category. Sometimes they nominate certain things and sometimes they don't. Who can tell, really?


Best Costume Design:
Black Swan
Burlesque
The King's Speech
Robin Hood
True Grit
alt: Alice in Wonderland

Just a completely random idea to throw out Alice in Wonderland. I'm absolutely positive it will indeed get a nomination for Colleen Atwood, but... I just want to throw it out on the off chance they do indeed snub her and I can be all "see, I knew they wouldn't nominate that trash." Of course, I'm then predicting Robin Hood, so... er... ummm...

Best Film Editing:
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
alt: The Fighter

I dunno. All six of these films have aspects that I can see the Academy responding too. I'm just banking on some sort of boxing movie fatigue with The Fighter (although the editors branch could just as easily be turned on by the inserting of documentary footage as they are turned off by the routine boxing sequences.) To quote Lisa Simpson: Like, ya know... whatever!

Best Make-Up:
Alice in Wonderland
True Grit
The Wolfman
alt: The Way Back

I typed "The W---" and left it blank for several minutes as I tried to decide which movie to predict. I went with The Wolfman, but I can easily see it being left off in favour of, well, anything, really? Same goes for True Grit, but I feel confident that that's film's prestige will get it across the line.

Best Visual Effects:
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
Iron Man 2
Scott Pilgrim vs The World
TRON: Legacy
alt: Harry Potter and the I've Forgotten It's Name For Real, Part 1

Yeah? I dunno. Why is this category five wide again?

Best Music - Original Score:
Alice in Wonderland
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
alt: The Illusionist

Alexandre Desplat, almost always getting nominated for the wrong score entirely. This year it's The King's Speech over (apparently) The Ghost Writer. Hmmm. So disappointing since I thought this year had so many great scores. They really do need to reinstate that adapted/song score category though, don't they?


Best Music - Original Song:
"Welcome to Burlesque" from Burlesque
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" from Burlesque
"Coming Home" from Country Strong
"I See the Light" from Tangled
"We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3
alt: "Shine" from Waiting for Superman

I will be happy as long as something from Burlesque is nominated!

Best Sound Editing:
Black Swan
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
alt: True Grit

I went back and forth. Settled on this combination. looks decent enough, right? (rhetorical question, don't answer that!)

Best Sound Mixing:
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
True Grit
Unstoppable
alt: Salt

Again, who really knows? These categories occasionally throw up really weird stuff.


Best Animated Feature:
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
alt: Tangled

I haven't seen Tangled yet, but gosh I really hope The Illusionist really snags that final contested slot. Or, if not that, then something like My Dog Tulip or Idiots and Angels that will throw people for a loop like they did last year with The Secret of Kells. Do we really need Despicable Me nominated? Why not just nominate Kim Possible: The Movie while you're at it?

Best Documentary Feature:
Inside Job
Restrepo
The Tillman
Waiting for Superman
WasteLand
alt: William Kunstler: Disturbing the Universe

I can see all the contenders being nominated, to tell you the truth. And, for what it's worth, that includes Exit Through the Gift Shop. If it got this far...

Best Foreign Language Film:
Incendies from Canada
In a Better World from Denmark
Biutiful from Mexico
Life Above All from South Africa
Even the Rain from Spain
alt: Dogtooth from Greece (for laughs)

Again, it's a total throw-the-darts idea for the final spot and I went with Spain since it sounds like the where-did-that-come-from surprise that is always there due to the tiny nature of the branch.

I'm not going to predict the short categories since I can't even fake having any true knowledge about them at all. We'll see how we go when the nominations are announced Tuesday American time, which I believe is usually about Midnight on Wednesday here. What fun.

Blue Movie

A little poll for you lovely readers on this Wednesday afternoon.

poll by twiigs.com

That third one, in case you're wondering, is the newly released Australian poster from the wonderful local design company Carnival Studio. What do you guys reckon is the best? The earlier pink design? The American design that goes the "blue movie" route with its dark colours, or the Australian design with its golden hues? Have a say.

Love + Crime

An observation:



Any others from 2010 that you can recall?

End of observation.

What's in a Rating?

New Australian horror film The Loved Ones opens around the country this Thursday. It's really quite an incredible piece of cinema, so completely and utterly brutal and committed in its portrayal of twisted violence and teenage madness. It's tag of "Pretty in Pink meets Wolf Creek" is a good one and I encourage anyone who enjoys horror movies to seek it out since movies like The Loved Ones don't come around very often.

When I saw the movie a couple of months ago I thought for sure it would receive an R18+ rating from the Office of Film & Literature Classification, Australia's rating body. R18+ is Australia's harshest film rating and yet unlike America it is not a hindrance. When a film receives an NC17 rating over there it all but condemns it to arthouse cinemas and minimal returns at the box office. That Wolf Creek was rated R18+ and, if memory serves, debuted at #1 at the box office proves that the rating is far from the scarlet letter it could be. Chopper, another iconic Aussie film from the last decade, also got hit with the rating and that didn't stop it from causing a sensation.


So I was completely staggered when I saw a poster for The Loved Ones recently and saw the little red box indicating an MA15+ rating. MA15+, surely they jest! No, no, apparently an MA15+ rating it gets, which, for anyone outside of these fair shores, means anyone under the age of 15 can see the film if they attend with an adult. Or, if they guy a ticket to Paranormal Activity 2 and sneak in. The Loved Ones' rating is based on "High impact violence", something that the film has in spades and yet somehow that violence, as highly impactful as the OFLC seems to think it is, is just as bad as Buried's "Strong coarse language", a justification for its own MA15+ just weeks prior.

While I think it's silly to be reductive about the rating system to say "well if [movie 1] is rated this way then [movie 2] shouldn't be", but there's simply no way I can fathom how a movie such as The Loved Ones can be rated MA15+ given the history of our ratings. Just last week Saw VII 3D was released in Australian cinemas with an R18+ rating. The OFLC's reasoning behind that very restrictive rating (nobody under 18 is permitted, even with a parent)? "High impact violence, blood and gore".

So, apparently, the existence of "blood and gore" tips it over the edge into R18 territory? What version of The Loved Ones did the ratings board see? The Loved Ones is a movie in which feet get nailed to the floor, drills meet flesh, blood is spilled and knives are drawn. And to compare it again to Wolf Creek - rated R18+ five years ago for "High level realistic violence, strong coarse language" - I'm not really sure how that one is any worse than The Loved Ones, but who can make heads or tails of the OFLC at the best of times? The Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning was rated R18+ for "High level horror violence". Vague as they are, I'm not sure what the difference is, but what can you do?


All of this is basically to say "I have no idea what goes on at the ratings board". As much as I want The Loved Ones to be successful, I think it would be absurd for parents do not take their children to see it. When I saw Buried two parents had brought along their two children, both of which looked under 10. I hope those children kept their parents awake all night with their nightmares of being buried alive. Really. Still, at least the OFLC aren't as weird as America's MPAA, an organisation that allows horrific violence to be exhibited to anyone, but the moment two adult characters even hint at being sexual with one another they get slapped with a heavily restrictive rating. Case in point being the recent NC17 rating handed to Derek Cianfrance's Blue Valentine. It will be interesting to see how the OFLC handle that film later in the year.